By Justin Lipitz

Russell Westbrook may say that games against the Golden State Warriors are just any other match-up, but we know that that isn’t true. After dominating Golden State in the team’s first two games, another highly anticipated game tonight raises questions as to what the Thunder’s chances will be if they meet in the postseason.

Meanwhile, the Houston Rockets are probably the hottest team in the league, and after climbing into first place in the West, they have been the favorite to knock off the Warriors. While Houston has been impressive, there is a lot of reason to believe that the Thunder may actually be best equipped to dethrone Golden State.

Between the two teams, Houston is clearly the better offensive one, ranking second in the NBA in Offensive efficiency behind Golden State, averaging 113.4 points per 100 possessions. Meanwhile, the Thunder is just eleventh in this metric, even after gaining chemistry following their abysmal start to the season. As historically great as Houston has been shooting the three by leading the league with 15.6 threes a game, they are still twelfth in 3-Point Percentage while Golden State leads the league with a clip of 39.5%.

The Thunder are a slightly better defensive team than the Rockets as well. Although Andre Roberson faced a season ending injury, they are still seventh in the NBA in defensive efficiency while having Paul George, a prime candidate for Defensive Player of the Year. The Rockets are also a strong defensive team, ranking ninth in this category as well. Even though there isn’t too much of a differential in their defensive numbers, the Thunder are still a more athletic team that clearly has a higher ceiling when defending the Warriors. This has been verified based on the two games between the teams, where the Thunder held them to 91 and 105 points respectively; Golden State also just shot around 30% from beyond the arc.

In the most recent game that the Rockets won against the Warriors, Stephen Curry had just 19 points and Klay Thompson ended with just 8. These numbers, however, weren’t necessarily a product of Houston’s defense, but a result of missed shots that the splash brothers would normally knock down. The Rockets narrowly won this home game even though they received some unexpected production from Luc Mbah a Moute and Clint Capela. These players won’t perform this well in a seven game playoff series, and Thompson and Curry will definitely play at a higher level.

The Rockets are somewhat reminiscent of the 2016-2017 Cleveland Cavaliers. Based on how Cleveland was able to defend in the playoffs leading up to the finals, they appear to be similar defensive teams. Last season, Cleveland also became far more reliant on the three, and when they tried to simply outscore the Warriors, they lost in five games in the Finals. Meanwhile, the year before when they beat Golden State, they were a top ten defensive team and strong at offensive rebounding. Oklahoma City is definitely more comparable to that Cavaliers team, as they currently rank first in Offensive Rebounding Percentage.

No team has shown that they can beat Golden State by outscoring them, and it would be irresponsible to think that Houston will be able to despite their being great from three. Gritty and athletic teams like the 2015-2016 Cavaliers and Thunder pushed Golden State to the brink on the other hand. Not to mention that an even more motivated Russell Westbrook is terrifying.